Table of Contents 1. Making Money in Forex Trading 2. What is Forex Trading 3. How to Control Losses with "Stop Loss" 4. How to Use Forex for Hedging 5. Advantages of Forex Over Other Investment Assets 6. The Basic Forex Trading Strategy 7. Forex Trading Risk Management 8. What You Need to Succeed in Forex 9. Technical Analysis As a Tool for Forex Trading Success Developing a Forex Strategy and Entry and Exit Signals Thousands of people, all over the world, are trading Forex and making tons of money.

Why not you? All you need to start trading Forex is a computer and an Internet connection. You can do it from the comfort of your home, in your spare time without leaving your day job.

And you don't need a large sum of money to start, you can trade initially with a minimal sum, or better off, you can start practicing with a demo account without the need to deposit any money. Once you consider to start Forex trading, one of the first things you need to do is choose a broker, choosing a reliable broker is the single most critical factor to Forex success. There are dozens of online brokers out there but your best bet is to go with one of the leaders.

Here are 2 online brokers that are reputable and are most suitable for beginners and pros alike: 1. Forex Inc - The best broker for US residents If the link doesn't work, copy and paste the following URL into a browser: www. eToro - accepts worldwide traders except US residents If the link doesn't work, copy and paste the following URL into a browser: www.

Now I would strongly encourage you to go and visit these broker's sites right now even if you are not yet decided whether you want to go into Forex trading. because each provides tons of free education materials, videos and best of all a demo account that allows you to practice Forex trading for free without the need to deposit any money. Simply go to each of these brokers, register for a free demo account and start "trading" - by actually practicing and experiencing it firsthand you'll be able to decide whether Forex trading is for you.

In any case, before starting to trade for real, it is advisable that you practice with a demo account. Once you build some skill and feel more comfortable with the system you can start trading gradually for real money.

Now which of the two brokers you should choose? while both are reputable and reliable they do have some differences. For starter if you are a US resident you should choose Forex Inc, as eToro does not accept US residents.

Here is a summary of the specific advantages of each of them. Choose based on your personal preferences: Forex Inc www. It has several different account levels that make it easy for anyone to open an account. Forex Inc is an excellent broker suitable for beginners and pros alike. eToro www. You can also communicate with other traders including the top traders.

What is Forex Trading Foreign exchange, popularly known as 'Forex' or 'FX', is the trade of a single currency for another at a decided trade price on the over-the-counter OTC marketplace. In essence, Forex currency trading is the act of simultaneously purchasing one foreign currency whilst selling another, mainly for the purpose of speculation.

Foreign currency values increase appreciate and drop depreciate towards one another as a result of variety of factors such as economics and geopolitics. The normal objective of FX traders is to make money from these types of changes in the value of one foreign currency against another by actively speculating on which way foreign exchange rates are likely to turn in the future. In contrast to the majority of financial markets, the OTC over-the-counter currency markets does not have any physical place or main exchange and trades hours every day via a worldwide system of companies, financial institutions and individuals.

Because of this, currency rates are continuously rising and falling in value towards one another, providing numerous trading choices. One of the important elements regarding Forex's popularity is the fact that currency trading markets usually are available hours a day from Sunday evening right through to Friday night.

Buying and selling follows the clock, beginning on Monday morning in Wellington, New Zealand, moving on to Asian trade spearheaded from Tokyo and Singapore, ahead of going to London and concluding on Friday evening in New York. The fact that prices are available to deal hours daily makes certain that price gapping whenever a price leaps from one level to another with no trading between is less and makes sure that traders could take a position each time they desire, irrespective of time, even though in reality there are particular 'lull' occasions when volumes tend to be below their daily average which could widen market spreads.

Forex is a leveraged or margined item, which means that you are simply required to put in a small percentage of the full value of your position to set a foreign exchange trade. Because of this, the chance of profit, or loss, from your primary money outlay is considerably greater than in conventional trading. Currencies are designated by three letter symbols. The first currency is the base currency and the second currency is the quote currency.

The price, or rate, that is quoted is the amount of the second currency required to purchase one unit of the first currency. As we see, the US dollar is represented in all currency pairs, thus, if a currency pair contains the US dollar, this pair is considered a major currency pair.

Pairs which do not include the US dollar are called cross currency pairs, or cross rates. One of the most interesting movements in the Forex market involving the British pound took place in the September 16, That day is known as Black Wednesday with the British Pound posting its biggest fall. the US dollar currency pairs. The general reasons for this "sterling crisis" are said to be the participation of Great Britain in the European currency system with fixed exchange rate corridors; recently passed parliamentary elections; a reduction in the British industrial output; the Bank of England efforts to hold the parity rate for the Deutschemark, as well as a dramatic outflow of investors.

At the same time, due to a profitability slant, the German currency market became more attractive than the British one. All in all, the speculators were rushing to sell pounds for Deutschemarks and for US dollars. As a result, the pound returned to a floating exchange rate. Another intriguing currency pair is the US dollar vs. It is traded most actively during sessions in Asia.

From the mid 80's the Yen ratings started rising actively versus the US Dollar. In the early 90's a prosperous economic development turned into a standstill in Japan, the unemployment increased; earnings and wages slid as well as the living standards of the Japanese population. And from the beginning of the year , this caused bankruptcies of numerous financial organizations in Japan. As a consequence, the quotes on the Tokyo Stock Exchange collapsed, a Yen devaluation took place, thereafter, a new wave of bankruptcies among manufacturing companies began.

The above started an Asian crisis in the years that led a Yen crash. It resulted in a tumble of the Yen-US dollar pair from Yens for one US dollar to The global economic crisis touched almost all fields of human activities.

Forex currency market was no exception. Though, Forex participants central banks, commercial banks, investment banks, brokers and dealers, pension funds, insurance companies and transnational companies were in a difficult position, the Forex market continues to function successfully, it is a stable and profitable as never before.

The financial crisis of has led to drastic changes in the world's currencies values. During the crisis, the Yen strengthened most of all against all other currencies.

Neither the US dollar, nor the euro, but the Yen proved to be the most reliable currency instrument for traders. One of the reasons for such strengthening can be attributed to the fact that traders needed to find a sanctuary amid a monetary chaos. Ask and Bid When traders want to place an order on the Forex market they should be aware of the currency pair as well as the price of this pair.

A Forex market price of a currency pair is denoted by two symbols, Ask and Bid, which have specific digital notations. Consequently, a trader sells the currency standing second. Bid price is the lowest price in the quotation of the currency pair, at which a trader sells the currency standing first in the abbreviation of the currency pair.

Respectively, a trader buys the currency standing second. Seem complicated? This means that you can buy 1 euro for 1. The difference between the Bid price and the Ask price is called spread. The spread is actually the commission of the broker.

The Spreads in Forex trading are actually very small compared to currency spreads at banks. A pip is the smallest price movement of a traded currency. It is very important that you understand what a pip is in the Forex trading because you will be using pips in calculating your profits and losses.. For most currencies a pip is 0. When a currency moves from a value of 1. There is an exception for quotations for Japanese Yen against other currencies. For currencies in relation to Japanese Yen a pip is 0.

A lot is the minimal traded amount for each currency transaction. For regular accounts one lot equals , units of the base currency. However you can also open mini and micro accounts that allow trading in smaller lots. Understanding the Pip Spread - The spread is closely associated with the pip and has a major importance for you as a trader. As mentioned above, It is the difference between the selling and the buying price of a currency pair. It is the difference in the bid and ask price. The ask is the price at which you buy and the bid is the price at which you sell.

In this case the spread is 3 pips. The pip spread is your cost of doing business here. In the case above it means you sustain a paper loss equal to 3 pips at the moment you enter the trade. Your contract has to appreciate by 3 pips before you break even.

The lower the pip spread the easier is it for you to profit. Generally the more active and bigger the market, the lower the pip spread. Smaller and more exotic markets tend to have a higher spread. Smaller accounts will generally have higher spreads than bigger regular accounts. From the profitability point of view it is important to find a broker offering a lower pip spread, however the low spread is not everything.

More important is to choose a reputable and reliable broker. Most brokers will allow leverage. This can heighten profits and losses and should be used wisely.

How to Control Losses with "Stop Loss" Stop loss is a widely used order aiming mainly at limiting the possible losses in case of negative market movements. Stop loss is used only with open positions.

When the market conditions are not favorable for a trader and the price has reached the level of the "Stop loss", the deal is closed automatically. Therefore, Stop loss helps the trader to control losses and in case of failures to keep safe at least part of his deposit.

If a trader does not use Stop loss orders, the position is closed by the broker when the sum of losses is equal to the sum of the deposit. There are 3 types of Stop loss orders: fixed Stop loss, sliding Stop loss and combined Stop loss. Fixed Stop losses are set while opening positions. They cannot be changed until the deal is closed. Sliding stop losses, on the other hand, can be modified any time depending on the price movement.

Another name for sliding Stop loss is Trailing stop, that can be modified either manually or automatically based on the traders' settings. There are many discussions on whether it is necessary to use Stop losses or not. Some traders believe that Stop loss is essential in trading, emphasizing the ability of Stop losses to prevent the loss of the whole deposit. If the price is rapidly moving in a direction which does not correspond to the forecast, a deal that has not been closed in time can result in a significant loss.

The opponents of Stop loss believe that this order can limit not only losses, but profits as well. In this case the position is closed prematurely with a loss while it could develop into a profit later on.

As a rule, the decision on whether to use Stop loss or not depends on the individual strategy and preferences of a particular trader. Trailing stop is an order which its major function is to act as an automatic maintenance of an open position with continually shifting of the stop loss level depending on the price movement. A trader may open a bullish position and sets the gap from the current price to trailing stop in pips.

When the price goes upwards, the trailing stop follows it automatically sticking to the set gap. In case that the price goes down, then the trailing stop quote remains on the spot. In this way, a trader using a trailing stop has an opportunity to derive maximal profit at an ascending price with no regard to the set Take Profit value. Furthermore, a trailing stop is a loss limiter. Here is an example: a trader opens a buy position at the price of 1. In case that the price starts to move upwards and exceeds the mark of 1.

If the price turns down, the price does not change its position. As to a sell position opening, trailing stop behaves quite in the opposite. The trader sets it a few pips higher.

At a price descending motion the trailing stop shifts according to the set size. With the up-going price, the trailing stop does not move. While applying a trailing stop in Forex operations a trader will have to remove stop loss orders manually in line with increases in the trade profit.

Trailing stop sets a stop loss level automatically at the value the trader needs. A trailing stop is mainly used by traders who run trend trading, but can't follow the price moves continually. Trailing stop usage is also feasible at intraday trades, when quick reaction to price change is required.

Please note that trailing stops work only when the trading terminal is open. Once the terminal is switched off the stop loss is fixed at its current spot.

How to Use Forex for Hedging Hedging denotes safety and security. Hedging means the protection of a client's funds from unfavorable currency rate fluctuations. Account funds are fixed at their current price through conducting trades on Forex. Thus, hedging helps to ease exposure to currency rate changes risks, which helps to prevent the risk of currency rate fluctuations. As a matter of fact, hedging presupposes using one instrument in order to lower the risk related to unfavorable market factors impact on the price of another one directly associated with it.

Hedging can also be considered as a type of investment allowing to minimize price movements risks in the market. The hedging cost should be valued with regard to the possible losses in the event of not hedging. Here's a hedging example: a trader, who imports in a foreign currency, opens a buy trade with the currency of his trading account in advance, and when the real time of the currency purchase arrives to his bank, he closes the position.

And a trader, who exports in a foreign currency, opens a sell trade with the currency on his trading account beforehand, and at a the real moment of this currency purchase in his bank, he closes it. Advantages of Forex Over Other Investment Assets 1.

Simple to comprehend and master - In a Forex trade we deal with just a pair of currencies 2. Low Minimum Investment - The Forex market requires less capital to start trading than most other markets. The initial investment could go very low, depending on the leverage offered by the broker. This is a great advantage since Forex traders are able to keep their risk investment to the lowest level.

Online Forex brokers offer "mini" and "micro" trading accounts with low minimum account deposit. We're not saying you should open an account with the bare minimum, but it does make Forex trading much more accessible to the average individual who doesn't have a lot of start-up trading capital. Trading starts when the markets open in Australia on Sunday evening, and ends after markets close in New York on Friday.

High Liquidity - Liquidity is the ability of an asset to be converted into cash quickly and without any price discount. In Forex this means we can move large amounts of money into and out of foreign currency with minimal price movement. Low Transaction Cost - In Forex, typically the cost of a transaction is built into the price. It is called the spread.

The spread is the difference between the buying and selling price. Leverage - Forex Brokers allow traders to trade the market using leverage. Leverage is the ability to trade more money on the market than what is actually in the trader's account. Profit Potential from Rising and Falling Prices - The Forex market has no restrictions for directional trading.

This means, if you think a currency pair is going to increase in value; you can buy it, or go long. Similarly, if you think it could decrease in value you can sell it, or go short.. No one can corner the market - The foreign exchange market is so huge and has so many participants that no single entity can control the market price for an extended period of time.

Such a huge amount of a daily volume allows for an excellent price stability in most market conditions. This means you likely will never have to worry about slippage as you would when trading stocks or commodities. The price you see quoted on your trading screen is the price you get. Market transparency and Instant execution - Market transparency is much greater in Forex than in stocks or commodities, this means it is easier to analyze the inner workings of the market and figure out what is driving it.

Instantaneous order execution is another great advantage Forex has over other markets. Retail Forex trading is generally done over the internet on all electronic platforms. The Forex market has no central exchange and was designed to be this way to facilitate large banks and allow for instant execution of transactions, this means no delays for you and extreme ease of execution.

Price movements are highly predictable in the Forex market - Due to its highly speculative nature Forex price movements tend to over shoot and then correct back to the mean. This means there are a number of repetitive patterns that are easily recognizable to the trader who is trained in price action analysis.

Forex currency pairs generally spend more time in very strong up or down trends than other markets, this is also a huge advantage because it is generally much easier to trade a strongly trending market than a chaotic and consolidating market. Now, if you were holding a futures position over night it is entirely possible that your stop got gapped around, in which case you would get filled at the next best price, which often will be extremely damaging to your trading account.

Direct participation, difficult to manipulate or influence - Forex trading operates in a decentralized online electronic market for its participants: Banks, FCMs, hedge funds, governments, retail currency conversion houses and high worth net individuals.

Investors can interact directly with the market maker for pricing on a currency pair. Access is quicker and costs are lower than in other markets. Large market liquidity makes it very difficult for any one participant to manipulate or influence it. Easier market analysis - Countries are more often stable than companies making it easier to predict their economic direction.

Primary factors affecting demand and supply for Forex investment are interest rates and economic indicators such as GDP, trade balances and foreign investment. This and other economic data released regularly determines demand and supply for currency pairs. Technology frontiers and investing - Technology enables the retail investor the ability to make better investment decisions through ready access to economic and political news events, to technical charting software and electronic trading platforms.

They also have transparent and safe access to their investment funds in segregated accounts so that the safety of their funds is guaranteed. Limited Risk - Despite the common perception about Forex being risky, it is easy to limit and reduce the risk if a trader chooses the right strategy. In addition it should be mentioned that stops are much easier to control as well, that is why newbies have good chances to succeed even while doing their first steps as Forex investors and traders.

No fees or middlemen - There are no commissions when trading on the Forex market. The retail brokers in this market are compensated through the bid-ask spread. Businessmen can also spot currency trading which eliminates the middlemen and allows each person to trade directly with the market that is responsible for pricing on a certain currency pair.

Not only does this expedite the process, it gives each trader more options and versatility. The Basic Forex Trading Strategy The basic Forex strategy that is used by many traders of all experience levels, is Trend Following. This strategy is widely followed because of its simplicity to identify and trade and many times, strong trends can bail you out of an imperfect set of buy and sell rules. Before we delve into the basics of Trend Following, it is important to first explain why trend trading is a popular strategy used by many new and experienced traders.

Do you have the perfect Forex trading strategy? I have not found it. To me, a perfect strategy is the one that wins all of the time and has minimal trade drawdown.

Therefore, learning how to trade in an imperfect world is very important. Trend following is a simple way to cover up some strategy imperfections by identifying the strongest trends in the market. When you trade in the direction of the trend, the rest of your trading approach can fall right into place.

This doesn't mean that all your trades will be winners. It does mean that you don't have to be exact in your entries and exits once you find a strong trend to trade. Now how do you know when a trend starts and when it is going to end? Since this is a beginners guide I will not elaborate on the various techniques that traders use to identify trends as this is beyond the scope of this book.

I will however touch on several techniques in later chapters but note that these will be just in an introduction level without going too much deeper. Any trader either a newbie or a pro should develop his own style of trading. There are several trading styles that you can adopt. You will choose your style based on your personality and financial capacities.

Many traders make the mistake of adopting a trading style that is unnatural for them. A trader may adopt one of the following two main trading styles: Day Trading and Intraweek trading.

Let's discuss each of them; Day Trading Day trading on Forex means that one or few trades are conducted within one trading day. As a rule, the time intervals between the opening or the closing of trades may take from several minutes up to several hours.

In this type of environment U. investors will feel When the equity more inclined to sell their U. dollars and buy British pounds to participate in the markets are outperformance of the UK economy. When they elect to do so, it results in the outflow of capital experiencing recessions, from the United States and the inflow of capital however, foreign into the United Kingdom. pushing the domestic currency down. Section 02 Key drivers of currency movements Key indicators The most overrated indicator GDP is no longer a big deal GDP report has also become one of least important economic indicators on the U.

calendar, as it has led to some of the smallest relative movements in the EURUSD. One possible explanation is that GDP is released less frequently than other data in our study it comes out quarterly versus monthly , but in general, the GDP report is more prone to ambiguity and misinterpretation.

For example, surging GDP brought about by rising exports will be positive for the home currency; however, if GDP growth is a result of inventory buildup, the effect on the currency may actually be negative. Also, a large number of the components that comprise the GDP report are known in advance of the release.

Section 02 Key drivers of currency movements Most volatile news reports That traders should follow closely Volatility and profits in forex are measured in pips. The bigger the volatility the more pips and money a trader can make from a certain trade.

Keep this chart by your side and make sure to mark these reports in your calendar! Unemployment indicator, showing if U. employment is growing or not. interest rates. Inflation indicator. for month prior to the release of the report. Section 02 Key drivers of currency movements Economic indicators What you need to know about them Part 1 What are Economic Indicators? Economic indicators are snippets of financial and economic data published regularly by governmental agencies and the private sector.

These statistics help market observers monitor the economy's pulse - so it's no surprise that they're followed by almost everyone in the financial markets.

With so many people poised to react to the same information, economic indicators have tremendous potential to generate volume and move prices. It might seem like you need an advanced economics degree to parse all this data accurately - but in fact traders need only keep a few simple guidelines in mind when making trading decisions based on this data.

Mark Your Economic Calendars Watching the economic calendar not only helps you consider trades around these events, it helps explain otherwise unanticipated price actions during those periods. Consider this scenario: it's Monday morning and the USD has been falling for 3 weeks, with many traders short USD positions as a result.

On Friday, however, U. employment data is scheduled to be released. If that report looks promising, traders may start unwinding their short positions before Friday, leading to a short-term rally in USD through the week. Know exactly when each economic indicator will be released. You can find these calendars at the New York Federal Reserve Bank's site.

What does This Data Mean for the Economy? You need not understand every nuance of each data release, but you should try to grasp key, large-scale relationships between reports and what they measure in the economy.

For example, you should know which indicators measure the economy's growth gross domestic product, or GDP versus those that measure inflation PPI, CPI or employment strength non-farm payrolls. Not All Economic Indicators can Move Markets The market may pay attention to different indicators under different conditions.

That focus can change over time and from one currency to another. For example, if prices inflation are not a crucial issue for a given country, but its economic growth is problematic, traders may pay less attention to inflation data and focus on employment data or GDP reports. Section 02 Key drivers of currency movements Economic indicators What you need to know about them Part 2 Watch for the Unexpected Often the data itself may not be as important as whether or not it falls within market expectations.

If a given report differs widely and unexpectedly from what economists and market pundits were anticipating, market volatility and potential trading opportunities may result.

At the same time, be careful of pulling the trigger too quickly when an indicator falls outside expectations.

Each new economic indicator release contains revisions to previously released data. Don't Get Caught Up in Details While your macroeconomics professor may appreciate all the nuances of an economic report, traders need to filter data to focus on the numbers that can inform their trading decisions. For example, many new traders watch the headlines of the employment report, for example, assuming that new jobs are key to economic growth.

That may be true generally, but in trading terms non-farm payroll is the figure traders watch most closely and therefore has the biggest impact on markets. Similarly, PPI measures changes in producer prices generally - but traders tend to watch PPI excluding food and energy as a market driver.

Food and energy data tend to be much too volatile and subject to revisions to provide an accurate reading on producer price changes. There are Two Sides to Every Trade Just remember that no trader's knowledge can be complete all the time. You might have a great handle on economic data published in Europe - but there are times when data published in the U.

or Australia might have a surprising impact on your currency market. Doing your homework before trading any currency can help you make better decisions. unemployment rate is expected to increase. Imagine that last month the unemployment rate was at 8. With a consensus at 9. economy, and as a result, a weaker dollar. They will go ahead and start selling off their dollars for other currencies before the actual number is released. What the heck! This is because the big players have already adjusted their positions way before the news report even came out and may now be taking profits after the run up to the news event.

The market players thought the unemployment rate would rise to 9. Now that the report is released and it says something totally different from what they had anticipated, they are all trying to adjust their positions as fast as possible. This would also happen if the actual report released an unemployment rate of The only difference would be that instead of the dollar rallying, it would drop like a rock! Since the market consensus was 9. looks a lot weaker now than when the forecasts were first released.

Instability in the world likelihood of Clinton becoming the next market prods investors to pull out of their president, Lim Say Boon, chief investment financial positions, leading to currency officer at DBS Bank Ltd. in Singapore, wrote depreciation. in a report. The Super Tuesday results are being seen as "an outcome for continuity over the disruption threatened by Trump and Sanders," he said. You must remember that investors hate uncertainty!

Similar effects have occured with Clinton and Obama. For Trump the upward trend was also there due to his promise to lower taxes and increase government spending on infrastrucure. Section 02 Key drivers of currency movements Market psychology The golden rule of economic indicators The currency rates often start moving even before the actual data comes out due to forecasts and market sentiment! Sentiment analysis is a kind of FX analysis that concentrates on indicating and consequently measuring the overall psychological and emotional state of all participants of the foreign exchange market.

This kind of Forex analysis strives to quantify what percentage of FX market participants are bullish or bearish, in other words being optimistic or pessimistic. If the forecast promised a positive growth and the actual data comes out even better than forecasted, it amplifies the rise of the currency even more. Overlap between two The Foreign Exchange market operates 24 hours a day, making it nearly impossible sessions for a single trader to track every market Generally, whenever there is an overlap in movement and respond immediately at the market e.

In period. For instance, every morning during order to devise an effective and London Open session. Euro pairs are active time-efficient investment strategy, it is and if you have a good strategy, you could important to understand how much get pips. liquidity there is around the clock to maximize the number of trading opportunities during a trader's own 2.

News Release market hours. Fundamentals drive the market. During News Release, volatility is experienced and Besides liquidity, a currency pair's trading some pairs could move over pips range is also heavily dependent on depending on the type of news. For example geographical location and macroeconomic Non-Farm Payroll is the most volatile news factors.

release and dollar based currency pairs could move hundreds of pips in seconds. Knowing what time of day a currency pair However, trading news is risky if you are not has the highest or narrowest trading knowledgeable about it. volatility will undoubtedly help traders improve their investment utility due to better capital allocation.

Central Bank Govenor's Speech High volatility offers lucrative profit Speeches from these guys could make pairs potentials to short-term traders. Lower go hundred's of pips and even change volatility under 80 pips per day is better market sentiment with effects lasting into for risk-averse traders, because there are months. However, its risky to trade these less iregular market movements caused by speeches except you are subscribed to some aggressive intraday speculation.

Section 03 Forex timing What Are the Best Times to Trade Forex We strongly advice you to avoid all resources that traders can then purchase currencies from tell you Forex market is a fairy-tale place where different continents. The timing in forex trading is is usually the most active as it involves many crucial! countries of the European Union.

The US market comes next, so the time when the London session The Forex market is open 24 hours a day, but it is intersects with the US session usually provides the not active all this time! In Forex trading money is biggest returns.

Expert traders consider 10 AM to made when the market is active when traders are be the best time as this is the period when the bidding on the prices so it is crucial for you to London market is preparing to close the trades learn about the most productive hours of the day and traders are getting ready to move to US and of the week for trading the forex!

This creates big swings in currency prices thus opening great opportunities for profit. There are three major trading sessions of the Forex market: London, US and Tokyo session. Fridays are busy as well, but only until PM and during the second half of the day the movements can be very unpredictable. While it is crucial to understand when is the best time to analyze the charts and make the bids, it is equally important to know when NOT to open positions. A thin market also comes with higher commissions spreads for each trade due to the decreased liquidity.

In simple words: if you want to sell a currency, it is harder to find potential buyers, so the broker or bank must increase the commission as it takes a risk of not finding a buyer so quickly. A good example of chaotic trading is shortly before, during and shortly after important news events. In these times of uncertainty, the currency rates can swing wildly and unpredictably, thus messing up trading by creating execution lags, triggering stop-loss orders, etc.

Usually, the higher the liquidity, the lower the volatility, and therefore the tighter the spread Spread is like a commission that you pay for the trade. However, even major pairs can experience wider than normal spreads during volatile periods, such as interest rates announcements, GDP reports, unemployment figures, to name a few examples.

There will also be wider spreads during off market hours, when there is only a fraction of the participants in the market, so the liquidity is lower. This can be seen when the markets open for the Asian session, at GMT Sunday, for example.

This widening occurs typically around news announcements or off-market hours. Most forex brokers allow you to trade all weekend, but spreads will be significantly wider during weekends when liquidity is almost non-existent. Dealing desk or market making brokers are going to widen their spreads coming into economic announcements to offset the risk they take on by filling orders. Unfortunately, banks do the same thing, so an average forex broker could be better, but only marginally.

What happens before or during important announcements. The volatility jumps before important anouncements and the drastic movements can hit the stop-losses, resulting in a lost trade and investment. wild swings based on rumours etc. So I generally close the position or wait out the increased spread unless it is really pumping. This should not be a problem if you are trading the higher time frames as your stop will probably be quite large and so increasing it by 5 or 10 pips probably won't be too significant risk increase better yet - factor in the widened spread when you calculate your position size as you know that if the trade works out you will be holding for a few days or more, in which time there will be anouncements.

If you can't be at your computer when the news anuncement hits, I would suggest leaving your stop wider for the periods that you can't manage the trade unless there are no announcements over that period. If you are trading lower time frames however, your stops will inevitably be smaller and the increase in stop size may substantially increase your risk.

In this case, you may have to decide to close the position before the anouncment or close enough of the position so that the increased stop will equal the same loss as the originally intended loss.

But make no mistake - you will have to widen your stop. The spread will get you. Even if the announcement is in your favour, price generally whips up and down at least a few pips before taking direction.

If your stop is anywhere near price just prior to news, chances are you will be taken out not matter what the result. Just be aware of the anouncement times and factor this in when deciding wether or not to take a trade. It may often seem that these indicators are contradictory.

Analyses of longer time periods show tendencies, ignoring accidental changes, whereas daily, hourly ir minute graphs help in choosing the moment to open and close positions. Example Multiple time frame analysis time X Let us look at a daily graph. What do most traders do when they see such a curve? Aug Sep Okt Nov Dec Conclusion For successful and precise market analysis, you must use at least time frames!

Section 04 Time frames Time frame choice of pros The shortest time frame that traders should start looking at when their trading day starts are daily charts, even if you are trading on a 5-minute time frame! The most common form of multiple time frame analysis is to use daily charts to identify the overall trend and then use the hourly charts to determine specific entry levels. As a matter of principle, all good traders I know use 2—3 time frames 3 being the best spaced enough so that each timeframe above encompasses 4—8 bars from the lower time frame.

Even then, I prefer to switch to the other time frames to be really sure about what to do. It attempts to predict price action and trends by analyzing economic indicators, government policy, societal and other factors within a business cycle framework. If you think of the markets as a big clock, fundamentals are the gears and springs that move the hands around the face.

Anyone can tell you what time it is now, but the fundamentalist knows about the inner workings that move the clock's hands towards times or prices in the future. What is Technical Analysis Unlike fundamental analysis, technical analysis focuses on the study of price movements. Technical analysts use historical currency data to forecast the direction of future prices. The underlying belief behind technical analysis is that all current market information is already reflected in the price of that currency; therefore, studying price action is all that is required to make informed trading decisions.

In a nutshell, technical analysis assumes that history will repeat itself. Beware of "Analysis Paralysis" Forecasting models are both art and science, with so many different approaches that traders can get overloaded.

It can be tough to decide when you know enough to pull the trigger on a trade with confidence. Many traders switch to technical analysis at this point to test their hunches and see when price patterns suggest an entry.

Look for Fundamental Drivers First The fundamentals include everything that makes a country and its currency tick. From interest rates and central bank policy to natural disasters, the fundamentals are a dynamic mix of distinct plans, erratic behaviors and unforeseen events.

No one will ever win the age-long battle between technical and fundamental analysis. Prior to the mids, fundamental traders dominated the FX market. However, with the advent of new technologies, the influence of technical trading on the FX market has increased significantly. Nowadays the best strategies tend to be the ones that combine both fundamental and technical analysis. Textbook perfect technical formations have failed too often because of major fundamental news and events like U.

nonfarm payrolls. Most individual traders will start trading with technical analysis because for some it is But trading on fundamentals alone can also easier to understand and does not require be risky. There will oftentimes be sharp hours of news and fact checking.

gyrations in the price of currency on a day when there are no news or economic Technical analysts can also follow many reports. currencies and markets at one time, whereas fundamental analysts tend to focus on a few This suggests that the price action is driven pairs due to the overwhelming amount of by nothing more than flows, sentiment, and data in the market.

pattern formations. Nonetheless, technical analysis works well Therefore, it is very important for technical because the currency market tends to traders to be aware of the key economic data develop strong trends. Once technical or events that are scheduled for release, and, analysis is mastered, it can be applied with in turn, for fundamental traders to be aware equal ease to any time frame or currency of important technical levels that the general traded.

market may be focusing on. However, as we already noted - it is important to take both strategies into consideration, as fundamental analysis can trigger technical movements such as breakouts or reversal in trends. Technical analysis, on the other hand, can also explain moves that fundamentals cannot, especially in quiet markets, causing resistance in trends or unexplainable movements. Wang, who started trading futures in , said he supplements his fundamental analysis of commodities supply and demand with simple forms of technical analysis.

One of his favorite measures is the day moving average. But he closed out the last of those positions on Wednesday, responding to local speculation that producers of coke and coking coal will be allowed to ramp up production. Dollar pair Single currency or Fiber - Euro Swissy - Swiss Franc Loonie - Canadian Dollar Aussie or Ozzie - Australian Dollar Kiwi - New Zealand Dollar Barnie - U.

Natural resources often constitute the majority of the countries' exports, and the strength of the economy its currency can be highly dependent on the prices of these natural resources. These correlations makes them easier to trade. currency, the U. That means gold prices tend to have an inverse relationship to the USD, offering several ways for currency traders to take advantage of that relationship.

For example, if gold breaks an important price level, you'd expect gold to move higher. With this in mind, you might sell dollars and buy Euros, for example, as a proxy for higher gold prices. These two major biggest oil consumer — the United States.

currencies tend to strengthen as gold prices Because the US is largely dependent on oil, rise. You might consider going long these the rise and fall of the commodity will have currencies when gold is increasing in value, an effect not only on the Canadian Dollar but or trade your GBP or JPY for these currencies also on the US Dollar — the higher the price of when gold is on the rise.

oil, the higher benefits Canada gets, and the more disadvantaged the US becomes. Monitoring exchange rates is essential to predicting earnings and corporate profitability. Throughout and , European manufacturers complained extensively about the rapid rise in the euro and the weakness in the U. The main reason for the dollar's selloff at the time was the country's rapidly growing trade and budget deficits. This caused the EURUSD exchange rate to surge, which took a significant toll on the profitability of European corporations because a higher exchange rate makes the goods of European exporters more expensive to U.

Unfortunately, inadequate hedging is still a reality in Europe, which makes monitoring the EURUSD exchange rate even more important in forecasting the earnings and profitability of European exporters. than on foreign markets. But the loans, essentially a bet on the Aussie The price difference in Russia and abroad dollar remaining strong against the franc, made the re-export of cars from Russia went horribly wrong when the dollar lucrative.

plunged in and , costing some borrowers their farms. Seizing on currency disparities, Russians made quick money by re-exporting the vehicles, which got so cheap in ruble terms that selling them back - sometimes to the same country that manufactured them in the first place - became a way to make a good profit.

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Whether a novice trader, professional, or somewhere in be- tween, these books will provide the advice and strategies needed to prosper today and well into the future.

For a list of available titles, visit our Web site at www. All rights reserved. Published simultaneously in Canada. Wiley Bicentennial Logo: Richard J. Pacifico No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning, or otherwise, except as permitted under Section or of the United States Copyright Act, without either the prior written permission of the Publisher, or authorization through payment of the appropriate per-copy fee to the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc.

No warranty may be created or extended by sales representatives or written sales materials. The advice and strategies contained herein may not be suitable for your situation. You should consult with a professional where appropriate.

Neither the publisher nor author shall be liable for any loss of profit or any other commercial damages, including but not limited to special, incidental, consequential, or other damages. For general information on our other products and services or for technical support, please contact our Customer Care Department within the United States at , outside the United States at or fax Wiley also publishes its books in a variety of electronic formats.

Some content that appears in print may not be available in electronic books. For more information about Wiley products, visit our web site at www. Figures 1. ISBN pbk. Foreign exchange futures. Foreign exchange market. C64 I have learned much from them about trading and about the human condition. At the time, I am certain to have delivered a long-held admonition: 95 percent of what you read in economics will be either wrong or irrelevant.

I am pleased to report that The Forex Trading Course falls into the 5 percent residual category of materials that are worth reading. In addition to satisfying those with a healthy obsession to work on improving their professional skills, The Forex Trading Course will force readers to think outside the box and to develop an appetite for the pursuit of knowledge about trading.

This, of course, is the most important aspect of the book and reminds me of an observation made by Sir Hugh Rigby, surgeon to King George V.

What distinguishes a great surgeon is who knows more than other surgeons. In the interest of putting the reader a leg up, an understanding of the structure of exchange-rate regimes is essential. There are three distinct types of exchange-rate regimes—floating, fixed, and pegged—each with different characteristics and different results.

Both operate without exchange controls and are free-market mech- anisms for balance-of-payments adjustments. With a floating rate, a central bank sets a monetary policy but has no exchange-rate policy—the exchange rate is on autopilot.

In consequence, the monetary base is determined domestically by a central bank. With both of these free-market, exchange-rate mechanisms, there cannot be conflicts between monetary and exchange- rate policies, and balance-of-payments crises cannot rear their ugly heads.

Indeed, under floating- and fixed-rate regimes, market forces act to automatically rebalance financial flows and avert balance-of-payments crises. Fixed and pegged rates appear to be the same.

However, they are fundamentally different: pegged-rate systems often employ exchange controls and are not free-market mechanisms for international balance-of-payments adjustments.

Pegged rates require a central bank to manage both the exchange rate and monetary policy. With a pegged rate, the monetary base contains both domestic and foreign components. Unlike floating and fixed rates, pegged rates invariably result in conflicts between monetary and exchange- rate policies.

Balance-of-payments crises erupt as a central bank begins to offset more and more of the reduction in the foreign component of the monetary base with domestically created base money. When this occurs, it is only a mat- ter of time before currency speculators spot the contradictions between exchange-rate and monetary policies as they did in the Asian financial crisis of — and force a devaluation or the imposition of exchange controls.

Steve H. There are many reasons for its popularity. First, we are truly in an online revolution, powered by the globalization of the Internet. The implications are profound. Individuals can no longer expect to work for one employer.

Baby Boomers are facing the opportunity and challenge of post-retirement careers. The result has been a cacophony of information overload, instant gurus, and instant trading solu- tions that appeal to those looking for shortcuts to success. These programs essen- tially confuse people and divert them from a realistic approach to training in forex trading. This book is written for the purpose of providing a getting started guide in forex trading. It, however, is not only for the person new to forex, but for those who have tried to trade forex but received mixed results through trial and error.

It is also for those who have experience in trading other markets and seek to apply that experience to forex. They will be able to build upon their experience and gain new insights into how to ap- proach forex.

Those who have achieved a level of initial success but seek to optimize their performance will find training strategies and tactics particularly useful.

The underlying premise of this book is that traders are not born—they evolve. Our goal is to sharpen the insights and the skills of the reader by providing both fundamental and technical knowledge that are common to successful traders. An underlying philoso- phy of this book is that successful forex trading requires a total approach that integrates fundamentals, technical analysis, and psychology.

Each chapter topic is in essence a module of knowledge, which can be read individually or sequentially. r Part I Chapters 1—9 focuses on the forces that move prices, also known as funda- mentals. The topics included in the fundamentals show the reader how to use fun- damental knowledge to arrive at trading decisions.

The chapters provide insight on how currency price movements are affected by things like interest rates, interest rate differentials, trade-weighted indexes, commodities, housing data, China, and more.

r Part II Chapters 10—15 focus on technical knowledge—how to read and analyze charts. The reader will build specific knowledge about the components of technical analysis and how to evaluate price action in terms of classical and advanced tools in- cluding: support and resistance, retracement concepts, trend analysis, and volatility and momentum indicators.

Nontraditional charting using renko and three-line break are featured. The final chapter includes questions that the reader should be able to answer at that point. They are designed to help you assess how well you understand the material and guide you in finding and using valuable information for scan- ning currency conditions.

Ultimately, all knowledge needs to be actionable. It is my hope that experience of trying forex trading is enhanced by this book and that forex trading becomes a journey which is enjoyable for its enormous challenges and more profitable than it otherwise would be.

I applaud them for their courage to pursue the challenges of forex trading and I have learned much from them about how to teach forex with improved effectiveness. I must acknowledge the late Professor Aaron Wildavsky, at the Graduate School of Public Policy, who shaped my thinking skills more than 30 years ago into the tools of inquiry that allowed this book to emerge.

He has conducted seminars in the United States, London, and Dubai as well as online training in all time zones. Cofnas founded www. com in as the desk- top forex trading industry started to provide education and training in this field.

com, a company providing forex education and global forex competitions. He has been in the financial service industry as an equity bro- ker, futures, and forex trader since He currently lives in Longwood, Florida, with his wife, Paula, where he conducts research on artificial intelligence programs using cellular automata and enjoys digital photography.

He has a daughter Paige, 25, and a son Paul, These forces are accepted by economists around the world as responsible for changes in the value of currencies. The person learning to trade forex or trying to improve his or her trading will benefit from a gain of knowledge of these fundamentals. In fact, as you will see, fundamental forces act as leading indicators of currency movement.

and global interest rates, economic growth, and market sentiment toward the dollar are the key ingredients that shape trading opportunities. Part I provides basic knowledge on how these factors impact forex prices and how they can be used in se- lecting trading opportunities. The reader will learn why fundamentals are important to for- eign exchange forex traders as well as what kind of economic activity are most important in affecting price movements.

These include interest rates, interest rate differentials, economic growth, and sentiment regarding the U. You have an opponent the market. In game of chance the key feature is that everyone faces the same odds and therefore the same level of information. In these games, no player can change the odds.

Playing forex, however, is not a game of odds. Participants in forex trading do not share the same amount of information.

The advice and strategies contained herein may not be suitable for your situation. It should be clear that there are many ways to evaluate the dollar. On February 27, , this is ex- actly what happened, with a sudden sell-off of the dollar against the yen. With regard to Japan, perhaps the best word to describe current conditions is un- certain. Morgan Dollar Index, which looks at the dollar in terms of a basket of 18 curren- cies.

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